India's fertiliser subsidy bill is projected to increase by approximately 70,000 crore, reaching around 2.41 trillion in FY27, primarily due to rising import costs exacerbated by the ongoing West Asia crisis.
India's exports recorded a 13.78 per cent increase to USD 43.56 billion in April, marking the highest monthly outbound shipments in over four years, primarily driven by petroleum products. However, the trade deficit widened to a three-month high of USD 28.38 billion due to a 10 per cent rise in imports.
The case for long-term investment in gold, however, remains intact.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
The Beijing summit may have reduced immediate diplomatic uncertainty, but it did not resolve the deeper structural contest between the United States and China. That contest appears likely to define the coming decade, notes Varun Arya.
We cannot simply have a 60-65 per cent import dependency in LPG, the bulk of which comes from just one volatile region -- West Asia, points out R Jagannathan.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
Amidst the ongoing conflict in West Asia, the Oil Ministry assures citizens that India's LPG supply remains secure, with no need for panic booking of cylinders. The normal delivery cycle of two-and-a-half days is being maintained, and crude oil is being sourced from diverse routes.
"The world might face a food crisis if the war continued till the end of April, as it could have a dramatic impact on planting in Europe and North America," said Matt Simpson, CEO of Brazil Potash.
Is the parabolic rise in silver running out of steam or just getting started? Ramalingam Kalirajan offers his take on if you should invest in silver now?
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
Textiles, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, engineering goods, gems and jewellery exports will receive a boost from the free trade agreement between India and the 27-nation European Union, according to exporters.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
The Budget reflects a clear focus on strengthening India's long-term prospects by leaning on nation-building sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology while maintaining fiscal responsibility.
India on Monday announced closure of negotiations for a free trade agreement signed with New Zealand, its 18th deal so far as the country aims to boost bilateral trade and investments. The India-New Zealand FTA is expected to be signed in the next three months and it is likely to come into force next year.
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Investors must account for currency depreciation in their financial plans and use instruments that can cushion the erosion in purchasing power.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
India's crude oil imports from Russia saw a marginal decline in September, but continued to account for over one-third of the country's total oil purchases, despite US pressure to curb the trade over concerns that it supports Moscow's war effort in Ukraine. India's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 220,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year.
'First-time investors, busy professionals, NRIs and those with modest sums looking for curated strategies may find FoFs especially appealing.'
India on Thursday signed a free trade agreement, officially dubbed as the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), with the UK - its 16th trade pact so far - as the country aims to boost bilateral trade and investments.
The way to deal with a bully is to resist bullying, because submission in the first instance only invites even more overbearing demands in future. What may seem like a small price to pay now will lead to a much higher price later, warns former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
Reliance Industries' refining earnings will remain steady, supported by its position as India's largest importer of Russian crude and favourable global supplies, according to analysts at JM Financial and Goldman Sachs. Reliance imported more Russian barrels than any other Indian refiner in the past eight months, according to data from Bloomberg/Kpler.
New investors should not allow themselves to fall prey to FOMO and rush headlong into gold.
Brave statements such as we will continue to be the fastest growing large country are of no consolation, because the direction of trade also determines the flow of investment, points out M Govinda Rao.
'Given the lag in transmission, further softening of lending rates may happen in the coming months.'
Maruti Suzuki's e-Vitara marks its high-stakes EV debut with strong export ambitions, lifting its stock even as analysts caution over pricing and fierce competition.
The 15th India-Vietnam Defence Dialogue signalled a move from routine talks to deeper cooperation, with new deals on submarine rescue and defence industry to support stability in the Indo-Pacific, notes Dr Rajaram Panda.
Communication channels between India and the US are open to resolve the ongoing tariff issues, and the glitch in trade ties is only temporary, given the long-term relationship between the two nations, government sources said on Wednesday. The US' 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports to America came into effect from August 27, barring a few sectors.
'Indian refiners can operate without Russian crude from a technical standpoint, but the shift would involve major economic and strategic trade-offs'
If India caves in to US pressure as Trump hopes it will, he will further try to blackmail it into submission, points out Ramesh Menon.
Indian auto component exporters may suffer a hit of 2,700 crore to 4,500 crore on their earnings after the imposition of steep US tariffs on key automotive parts, credit rating agency ICRA said in a note on Monday. The new 25 per cent tariff on engines, transmission, electrical components, and other auto parts may moderate the overall auto component industry's revenue growth to 6-8 per cent in 2025-26 (FY26), down from an earlier projection of 8-10 per cent.
India finalised a free trade agreement with the UK, its 16th so far as the country aimed at boosting bilateral trade and investments. The other regions and countries with which India has signed such agreements include the four-nation European bloc EFTA, Japan, Korea and Australia.
'Just as we cannot surrender the interests of our farmers and dairy industry, Trump is also looking for markets for the produce of the farmers in the Midwest, which are his support base.'
The prospect of protracted uncertainties in the global economic landscape not only pose a risk for India's growth outlook in 2025-26, but are also likely to dent the private sector's capital raising and investment plans, the finance ministry averred on Tuesday, cautioning the country's corporates that the era of 'easy pickings' was over.
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
'Investors should continue with their SIPs, especially during market corrections.' 'For those looking to start new SIPs, beginning with large-cap funds is a prudent strategy, followed by flexi-cap and value-oriented approaches.'
The US Trade Representative noted that India's average applied tariff rate stood at 17% per cent, the highest of any major world economy.
'If gold's recent surge has increased its allocation beyond 15 per cent in your portfolio, now may be a good time to rebalance.'
The government on Wednesday increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat by Rs 150 to Rs 2,425 per quintal for the 2025-26 marketing season, a move that comes ahead of key state elections. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved price hikes for six rabi crops, with increases ranging from Rs 130 to Rs 300 per quintal for the 2025-26 marketing season beginning April 2025. "Like for kharif crops, there is a significant increase in the MSP for rabi crops," Information and Broadcasting Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said in a media briefing after the Cabinet meeting.
